Cryptocurrency Opinion & Analysis

Local Top in Bitcoin Soon?


In our last update on Bitcoin (BTC), from almost a month ago, we found that based on our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count:


Fast-forward, and BTC did indeed bottom that same day we posted our update. However, instead of peaking at around $45+/-1.5K, the crypto continued to rally impulsively, i.e., five waves higher and currently trades at $51.5K. See Figure 1 below. Thus, although our call for an imminent low and rally was correct, the rally exceeded expectations. So, what does this mean for BTC going forward?

In our previous update, we also shared that,


Thus, as always, “forewarned is forearmed,” and it pays to stay informed more often than once or twice a month, as we now assess BTC’s price action as most likely completing another more minor 1st wave. See figure 1 below.

BTC Daily Chart

In this case, all of the green W-2 already bottomed on January 23rd as a simple, rather direct zigzag, and from that low, another 1st wave, grey W-i materialized. This grey W-i needs, ideally, one more orange W-5, preferably $56+/1.5K. From there, we anticipated a brief correction, grey W-ii, to ~$47+/1K before W-iii of -3 of -iii of -3 kicks in, likely targeting new All-time Highs. However, a drop below the January low would be concerning and suggests BTC will target the 2023 highs at around $31-32K before it can move higher. For now, we view that as a less likely scenario. Thus, our main alternative is that BTC has already put in the grey W-i top, heading for $44-45K first. See Figure 2 below.

BTC Daily Chart

As in our previous work, we have the colored warning levels to tell us if this is the case, and BTC will have to, at least, move below the grey level at $48337 to say that the W-ii is underway. And the red level (the January 23 low) must always hold, or else we will likely see the previously mentioned $31-32K level first before BTC can stage its next meaningful rally.

Thus, as stated in all our prior articles the past year:



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