Commodities Analysis & Opinion

Gold, WTI Crude Triggered Buy Signals at These Price Levels Last Week



  1. Built on the 2-week bull trend and after we beat last week’s high on Friday at 2041/42 for a buy signal.
  2. After Thursday’s high exactly at resistance at 2049/50 prices reversed and made a low for the day on Friday exactly at the buy level of 2041/37 for up to 8 points profit.
  3. At last it all came together after such a long period of sideways inaction and as I promised it was worth waiting for the breakout. From 2041/37, we shot higher to the 2065 target and as far as 2088.

2088 happens to be the late December high in gold so it is possible we will reverse from here. We still do not know if we are in a longer-term bull trend, or if we are just testing the upper limits of a 4 year sideways consolidation. I would not try a short, that’s too risky. I do favour a push higher so I would take a break above 2090 as a buy signal for Monday targeting 2097/99, perhaps as far as 2106/08.

We are overbought in the short term so a dip to support at 2074/71 is certainly possible. Watch for a low for the morning if tested – longs need stops below 2069 but a break lower should meet a better buying opportunity at 2065/62. Longs need stops below 2057.

WTI Crude April Future

  1. Initially finally beat resistance again at 7930/7980 for a buy signal but only reached 8085.
  2. I wonder if this price action is a copy of what happened in Gold on Friday.
  3. Prices dipped but held what should of course be support at 7980/7930, indicating that bull are gaining control at last.

Obviously, oil bulls need prices to hold above 7980/7930 to confirm my buy signal for this week. Longs need stops below 7900.

If we do hold on to 7980/30 bulls will push for 8110/40 eventually and probably even 8200/20. I would even look for 8330/60 at some stage, although I cannot give you an idea of the timing, unfortunately.XAU/USD-Daily Chart

It’s not the smartest traders who succeed, nor those who work the longest hours. It’s traders who learn how to control their emotions.

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